Sunday, March 8, 2020
Solar Energy Systems Analysis Essay Sample
Solar Energy Systems Analysis Essay Sample Solar Energy Systems Analysis Essay Example Solar Energy Systems Analysis Essay Example Currently, the question of the energy future of the world is one of the most considered and urgent problems of the humanity. It would seem that the solution to this problem is obvious: more power plants should produce more power. However, usage and maintenance of existing and built-to-be power plants need more fuel, which is derived from the natural resources of oil, gas, and coal that are not infinite. Nowadays, scientists and engineers around the world are searching for new sources of energy that could not only maintain and replace exhaustible natural resources, but also improve the ecological picture of the planet. Energy has numerous branches, depending on the main source type: nuclear, coal, gas, hydropower, and alternative, which is based on the use of renewable energy sources. Alternative energy includes wind, geothermal, biomass, tidal wave and solar energy. Comparing all these energy industries on the basis of environmental and economic criteria and indicators of safety, it is possible to conclude that solar power is the most promising. Current paper examines the problem of modern humanity that is the crisis of energy resources. In this regard, using new sources like alternative energy becomes necessary. Main attention is given to the areas of solar energyââ¬â¢s application as a clean and renewable source of energy. Besides, the paper describes existing inventions, their design and function. Solar Power Systems and Devices The most appropriate type of energy for the majority of autonomous objects is the energy of the sun. At the moment, solar energy is almost the only one, the reserves of which are completely inexhaustible. The amount of energy received by the Earth from the sun in one hour is equal to the total energy consumed by people in a year and at the same time this type of energy has almost no economic constraints (Tsao, Lewis. and Crabtree). It is quite natural that the development of solar energy and the attempts of its practical use, especially in the US and Western Europe, are extremely intense in the whole range of possible applications, ranging from micro electric for a few tens of watts for a variety of independent members to solar power plants for the industrial use, including applications such as spacecraft and solar powered cars. The amount of solar energy reaching the Earth is greater than the energy of the worlds reserves of coal, gas, oil, and other energy resources. Usage of only 0.0125% of solar power could provide all the needs of todayââ¬â¢s global energy (Kravchenko). Advantages of the technologies using solar energy are seen by the fact that solar installations do not provide heat added into the surface layers of the atmosphere where the greenhouse effect is not generated and there is no air pollution. However, there is a lack of solar energy. In particular, it is dependent on the state of the atmosphere, time of a day, and season. Use of solar energy mainly goes in two ways: in the form of thermal energy through the use of various thermal systems or by photochemical reactions. The most widely used technology in the world to use solar energy is hot water supply and heating. For this purpose, low-temperature energy is sufficient. Plants and solar heating systems are divided into passive and active (Fricke). In passive systems, absorption and storage of solar energy are provided directly by the elements of building constructions with little use of additional devices or without them. Throughout the history, the humanity has learnt how to use the sunââ¬â¢s heat during the construction of houses. In many countries, buildings are characterized by thick walls, accumulation of energy, and orientation of windows on the sunny side. Even at the current time, there are new methods developed, which improve such system. The wall facing the south is black, before a wall there is a glazed surface, and there is air between them, which is heated and then circulated in the building by convection. A water wall can be used instead of the stone one formed by water-filled containers from fiberglass. Active systems are based on the use of solar thermal collectors that convert solar energy into heat. Usually, a solar collector consists of energy absorbing plate glass and tubes disposed between the plate and the glass. Heated liquid circulates through pipes by a pump. Solar collectors can be used in a variety of low-temperature processes. For example, those can be used in the food industry for pasteurization of products, cleaning of cans, bottles, laundry in laundries, drying of agricultural produce, and so on. Reflecting solar collectors that concentrate the heat and light of the sun by chasing the sunââ¬â¢s movements are used for getting higher temperature or for implementing any mechanical work. Such collectors have either mirrors or lenses. Mirrors can be parabolic, spherical, or paraboloid. The concentrated sunlight falls on the central heat sink and heats the liquid, which is then pumped. This system includes the storage tank for the heated fluid. The main problem of the widespread usage of solar thermal systems is related to their economic efficiency and competitiveness as compared to traditional systems. The cost of energy generated by solar installations is higher than the cost of the energy obtained when using traditional fuels. However, the use of solar is more cost-effective for areas remote from centralized power supply (Corkish, Green, Watt and Wenham). A more efficient way of using solar energy is its direct conversion into electrical energy using solar cells. Photovoltaic cells are light-sensitive plates made of semiconductor material: selenium, silicon, gallium arsenide, silicon, diselenide, etc. (Corkish, Green, Watt and Wenham). Photovoltaic is produced when light particles (photons) create an electric current that is absorbed by the semiconductor. Solar panels can be of different capacities, from portable units in a few watts to power wattage, covering millions of square meters. In order not to depend on seasonal and diurnal solar cycle and atmospheric conditions, there are technical energy storage methods such as electrochemical storage batteries and mechanical accumulation (using rotating flywheels) in the form of hydrogen. It is also possible to mix cells with other energy sources such as the most likely combination with wind turbines, as well as systems with fossil fuels. Photovoltaic systems (solar panels) require minimal maintenance and they do not use water. Thus, they are well-suited for remote and desert regions. This method of converting solar energy is durable and environmentally friendly. It can also be used to improve environmental conditions at the place of use and in the future to regulate environmental conditions in large areas. Basic needs in solar cells include: lighting, functioning of electronics (radio, TV, refrigerator), and pumps for lifting water in remote rural areas. It also helps to provide energy supply to environmentally friendly public recreation areas and treatment, as well as for radio and telecommunication systems, lighthouses, buoys. Installations of solar energy are not only environmentally friendly, but also have a positive impact on other areas of life. For example, the use of solar panels in hot desert regions such as a sun umbrella provide favorable conditions for growing underneath melons and citrus fruit, for which intense sunlight is not advisable. Another example is the use of solar panels or solar collectors as building elements for facades (Chiras). Production of Solar Equipment In many countries, there is a constant increase in the production of solar collectors. Their current global installed capacity is estimated at 15 GW (Sterner). The total area of solar collectors in the world, according to incomplete data, exceeds 21 million of square meters, while annual production of solar collectors exceeds 1.7 million of square meters. At this point, leading countries are (in millions of square meters): Japan 7, USA 4, Israel 2.8, and Greece 2. Photoelectric conversion of solar energy is one of the fastest growing trends in the domain of renewable energy. Currently, the total installed capacity of solar photovoltaic systems is over 938 MW. The annual growth rate has been 30% during the last 5 years. At this point, leading countries are: Japan 80 MW, the United States 60 MW, and Germany 50 MW (Kalogirou). The extent of the use of photovoltaic solar cells are limited to the higher cost of electricity generated as compared to the energy produced by the use of traditional energy sources. The unit cost of power flat solar modules on the world market is 4 5 $/W and the cost of photovoltaic installations is 7 10 $/Wt (Wolfe). The cost of electricity generated by the modules ranges from 0.2 to 0.3 / $/kWh, which is significantly higher than the cost of electricity from conventional sources. However, worldwide there are large areas with centralized energy supply experiencing an acute shortage of energy, thus resulting in significant losses, including material and financial ones. There are regions remote from centralized power like individual settlements, villages, and operating points. The use of renewable energy sources, including solar energy, would solve social and economic problems of these regions and remote locations. Therefore, the question of economic opportunity and efficiency must be addressed taking into account socio-economic conditions, including energy deficiency, the cost of fuel, as well as geographical and climatic conditions. Main Inventions Scientists estimate that a small percentage of solar energy is sufficient to provide transport and industrial and domestic needs both now and in the future. The energy balance of the Earth and the state of the biosphere are not to be affected irrespective of whether or not the energy is used. However, one cannot overlook one major drawback. Solar radiation falling on the Earthââ¬â¢s surface does not have a fixed place of concentration. Thus, it is necessary to catch and turn this energy into a form that could be possibly used for human needs. In addition, there is a need in some way to stock solar energy to maintain the power supply at night and on cloudy days. At present, this problem is easily solved. The main thing is a correct usage of this resource to reduce its cost to a minimum. Moreover, taking into account day-by-day improvement of technology that becomes more expensive and, most importantly, traditional exhaustible resources, solar energy will find more fields of applica tion. Thus, below are the main of them. The task of solar collectors is accumulation of solar energy as efficiently as possible. Several well-known principles have been used in the design of the solar collector. For example, the heater is based on the property of solar rays, which freely pass through the transparent medium into the closed space and, being converted into thermal energy, are no longer able to come back through the transparent roof installation. The hydraulic system works by the principle of thermosiphon effect. That is known by the property of the liquid being heated to climb up, displacing the colder water and forcing the latter to move to a place of heat. It should also be noted that the development of solar energy has considered the effect of the accumulation and preservation of heat. Accumulated solar energy converts into heat energy that persists for a long time. There are different types of solar collectors differentiated by the external form of surfaces or by principles of absorbing surfaces and accum ulating methods. A flat solar collector is the most common type of solar collectors used for domestic water heating and heating systems. This solar collector has a glazing panel encasing the absorber plate. Absorber plate is made of metal with a good heat capacity (Kalogirou). The most frequently used metal is copper as it conducts heat better and is less susceptible to corrosion than aluminum. The plate is treated with a special highly selective absorber coating, which keeps better absorption of sunlight. This coating consists of a very strong thin amorphous semiconductor layer deposited on the metal base and has a high absorptivity in the visible region of the spectrum and low emissivity in the long wavelength infrared region. Heat loss reduces due to the glazing since frosted glazing glass with a low iron content that transmits only light is typically used in flat solar collectors. The bottom and side walls of the solar collector are coated with a heat insulating material, which further reduces he at loss. In the vacuum solar collector with direct heat transfer water, vacuum tubes are arranged at a certain angle and connected to the storage tank (Kalogirou). From it, water from a loop heat exchanger flows directly to tubes, heats up, and comes back. Advantages of this system concern a direct transfer of heat to water without other elements. Thermosiphon systems work on the principle of natural convection phenomena when warm water aspires upwards. In thermosiphon systems, the tank should be located above the collector. When water in tubes of the solar collector heats up, it becomes lighter and naturally rises to the top of the tank. Cooler water in the tank flows down into the tube; thus, it is circulated throughout the system. In smaller systems, the tank is integrated with solar collectors and is not designed for rail pressure. Therefore, thermosiphon systems need to use either water supply from upstream capacity or through reduction of pressure reducers. This type of solar collector has a minimum flow resistance. The system is required to be non-pressurized (open expansion tank) for tubes to avoid pressure. The drawback of such system is a slightly larger volume of water loop heat exchanger. There could also be a case of leaking water if the tube of solar collector is broken. However, the main advantage is low cost with all the benefits of a solar collector with vacuum tubes. The first prototype of a solar vehicle appeared in 1955 in Chicago thanks to William Cobb (Freestone). The model had a design with a length slightly larger than a foot and consisted of thirteen selenium solar cells on the roof and a small electric motor. It was the first attempt at creating silent and environmentally friendly transport. In the late 80-ies of the 20th century, the idea spread around the world. The idea is certainly unique, but also quite expensive. To make a solar power car able to compete with the motor car, one must use the most lightweight and durable construction materials, as well as a high-performance drive system, the latest achievements in the field of electronics, electrical engineering, and aerodynamics. Mobile station photoelectric is an autonomous energy source that can be used both in an open remote place and for the stationary use. However, of course, the main purpose of the station is the battery charging. The principle of operation of mobile photovoltaic plant is direct conversion of sunlight into electricity through solar cells. The station consists of modular solar panels, collapsible structures, and inter-module cable. Solar cells used in the modules are protected with light-resistant film on the front side and on the back side they have a rigid substrate. All this helps to protect them from mechanical damage and environmental influences. Solar modules are suitable for storage and transport as they are created in a convenient folding design. Concerning power characteristics of such installation, the cable can switch in parallel all the modules for charging a nominal voltage of 12 V, while series-parallel to the voltage of 24 V. In order to achieve voltage of 48 V, one must c onnect all modules with their own current leading in a daisy chain (Kalogirou). Portable solar power system is intended primarily for energy supply to DC house and special equipment with power up to 60 W and is based on solar photovoltaic modules. The structure of the portable system includes: a solar battery, a sealed rechargeable battery with charge controller-level, a warning device, a network adapter, and a lamp with a fluorescent lamp. Features of the system are the following: Accumulation of energy from different sources, including thermoelectric solar batteries and charger power; Ease of use and assembly of the technology implemented through the use of electrical connectors; Light weight and undeniable compactness that are important for the mobility of the system. Solar kitchen is household solar plants intended for cooking. The main element is a solar concentrator that focuses the sunââ¬â¢s rays on the surface of the radiation detector dishes in which food is prepared. Often, solar concentrators used for solar dishes have a low accuracy of the focusing solar radiation; however, it is enough for everyday usageââ¬â¢s convenience. Rotation after the apparent motion of the sun is carried out by hand and efficiency of the plant reaches 55-60% (Hesselbach and Herrmann). Benefits of solar kitchen are its compactness for the use in open space conditions, indispensability of the absence of gas, and, of course, budget of the installation. Lamps with solar batteries: today, there cannot be a huge surprise in case someone uses photovoltaic systems for night illumination of streets, highways, and other areas. These systems are autonomous power supply, which are based on solar module that allows making the lighting less expensive. The principle of operation of such systems is reliable and simple. During the daylight hours, the photovoltaic cell recharges batteries, turning solar energy into electricity. At night, the light automatically comes on and stays on until dawn. Intensity of solar radiation does not affect charging abilities of the battery; it can be recharged even in cloudy weather, not to mention the winter season. The structure of the photovoltaic system includes: PV module that converts sunlight into electricity; Battery that accumulates energy. Sealed and maintenance-free batteries are commonly used, the service life of which does not exceed 10 years; Controller, which optimizes the level of charge/discharge of the battery and automatically switches on the light at night and turns off the light in the daytime; An inverter, which converts direct current into alternating; Lighting unit, including the ceiling and the lamp. Of course, all electronic devices equipped with a photovoltaic system are protected against short circuit, overload, and overheating, while providing reliability and efficiency of the system. In conclusion, the main thing is that solar energy is one of the most renewable and readily available sources of energy. The fact that sunlight and heat are available for free in large quantities and do not belong to anyone makes them one of the most important alternative energy sources. Currently, the potential of solar energy is extremely high in addition to a large number of positive aspects in favor of the use of this resource in comparison with conventional energy. However, as mentioned in the beginning, there is one major drawback. Despite the fact that the amount of solar energy is enough to supply all the energy needs of the world, unfortunately these huge potentials will hardly be ever implemented on a large scale. This is impossible because of the low intensity of the solar lighting. Moreover, the use of a large number of collectors involves considerable material costs. Perhaps, the situation will change for the better in case cheaper materials for collectors are created an d applied.
Friday, February 21, 2020
Bayesian Networks Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 4750 words
Bayesian Networks - Essay Example BNs are graphical models that set probabilistic relationships among variables of interest. They depict the relationships between causes and effects. The BNs are strong knowledge representation and reasoning tool under conditions of uncertainty. The BNs are a directed acyclic graph having nodes and arcs with a conditional probability distribution linked for each node. Nodes stand for domain variables, and arcs between nodes stand for probabilistic dependencies. Set of nodes and a set of directed links between them must not form a cycle. Each node represents a random variable that can take discrete or continuous finite, mutually exclusive values. These values depend on a probability distribution, which can be different for each node. Each link states probabilistic cause-effect relations among the linked variables. A link is shown by an arc starting from the affecting variable (parent node) and ending on the affected variable (child node). We will use BNs to represent risk. For example, Figure 3.1 shows BN for "Decreased profits" risk. By linking together different risks we can model multiple risks in a project and we will look at this property in Chapter 5. Bayes' Theorem was developed after Rev. Thomas Bayes, an 18th century mathematician and theologian. Bayes set out his theory of probability in Essay towards solving a problem in the doctrine of chances published in the Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London in 1764. Richard Price, a friend of Bayes' sent the paper to the Royal Society and wrote: I now send you an essay which I have found among the papers of our deceased friend Mr Bayes, and which, in my opinion, has great merit... In an introduction which he has writ to this Essay, he says, that his design at first in thinking on the subject of it was, to find out a method by which we might judge concerning the probability that an event has to happen, in given circumstances, upon supposition that we know nothing concerning it but that, under the same circumstances, it has happened a certain number of times, and failed a certain other number of times. (Hogben 1970) Laplace accepted Bayes's results in a 1781 memoir and Condorcet rediscovered them (as Laplace mentions). They stayed accepted until Boole doubted them in the Laws of Thought . Mathematically Bayes theorem is stated as: Where it is possible to update our belief in hypothesis H given the additional evidence E. The left-hand term, P(H|E) is known as the "posterior probability," or the probability of H after considering the effect of E. The term P(H) is called the "prior probability" of H. The term P(E|H) is called the "likelihood" and gives the probability of the evidence assuming the hypothesis H is true. Finally, the last term P(E) is free of H and can be viewed as a normalizing or scaling factor. The power of Bayes' theorem is that in many situations where we actually want to calculate p(H|E) it turns out that it is hard to do so directly, yet we might have direct information about the likelihood, p(E|H). Bayes' theorem allows us to calculate p(H|E) in terms of p(E|H). 1.3 The Bayesian Approach to Probability and Statistics Understanding of the Bayesian method to probability and statistics helps to know BNs and related learning techniques. The
Wednesday, February 5, 2020
Evaluation essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 500 words
Evaluation - Essay Example For the potential buyers of these cars, this price difference should not be a consideration, provided they are satisfied with other features of the car. A clear advantage with the Camry range is that there are five different variant models on offer, with Hybrid varieties too made available to the customer, although this could cost an additional $5,000 on the basic model. The Honda Accord on the other hand Honda Accords comes in just two models. Moving on to other features of the cars, the Toyota Camry models score more points for their superior aesthetics and visual appeal. For example, the Camry has a rounded exterior, with a clean, tidy look which would appeal to buyers from the professional classes. Honda Accord, in contrast, has elements of a sports car, with sleeker and pointed exteriors, suggesting that the car would appeal to young car enthusiasts rather than older, higher income demographic groups. The Honda Accord Coupe has a 268-horsepower engine (V-6), takes lesser time to go from 0 to 60 and offers better fuel efficiency system, along with a lower center of gravity structure and ââ¬Å"independent multi-link rear suspensionâ⬠, which is supposed to provide greater control over the car. The Camry models too offer V-6 engines and greater car stability features, not by default but as additional options, which translates into more expenses for the customer. Both cars offer deluxe and comfortable leather interiors. As for safety features such as airbags, seatbelts, etc, both cars are similar. In other words, the safety and performance features of both cars meet standard expectations. Hence, neither car is overall better than the other. The final choice of a customer will depend on his/her age, location (urban, rural, etc), income, marital status, etc. Young men, who are not yet married, will more likely go for the Honda Accord Coupe, for its
Monday, January 27, 2020
Supply Chain Risk Management
Supply Chain Risk Management A global supply chain is subject to various types of supply and demand uncertainties existing at different nodes of the supply chain giving rise to a variety of risks that can lead to disruption. Companies that stay on top of supply chain risk make their businesses more resilient. They can enhance the companys competitive position, support growth and produce measurable returns. Many companies have recognized this and are now undertaking supply chain risk management programs This research paper reviews published approaches to supply chain risk management and tries to understand how the risks differ in two major industries-electronics and pharmaceuticals. For managers, it provides knowledge of the types of risks that may be present in their supply chain and presents a variety of strategies for identifying and managing the same. Introduction Globalisation, multiple channels to market, the pressure to run lean supply chains extending beyond traditional organisational boundaries, and the need to embrace external parties such as contract manufacturers and logistics service providers, have left the modern supply chain increasingly vulnerable to risk and to possible disruption. Economic disruptions including currency fluctuations, commodity price volatility, and sudden downturns in demand and ownership or investment restrictions imposed by governments have become more frequent and more visible since the financial crisis of 2008. Despite significant growth in international trade, cross-border movements are vulnerable to customs regimes, tariff and non-tariff barriers, quota systems, security concerns and infrastructure bottlenecks. All these risks can be clubbed into- macroeconomic, extended value chain, operational and functional risks. Almost two-thirds of the respondents to a global survey conducted by Mckinsey consisting of executives, say that the risks to their supply chain have increased over the past years. A significant of them also agreed to the fact their companies dont take any steps to mitigate these risks. (Source: September 2006 Mckinsey Quarterly global survey of business executives) Thus there is a clear need to review risk management practices as they pertain to both long-term strategic and short-term tactical decision-making. Organizations should review their risk exposure against objective, transparent criteria, with costs balanced against the benefits of potential methods for mitigating risk. . There are two sides to supply chain risk management: Risk assessment and mitigation Response to supply chain disruption Both are necessary components to an effective supply chain risk management strategy. With strong risk mitigation strategies in place a company is ready to face a given supply chain event. However, not all events may be anticipated. When these events occur, accompany must be prepared to respond quickly and effectively or risk suffering financial and customer service losses. Both the quantitative and qualitative risks will be covered through this paper. A step by step approach to tackle SCRM is proposed:- Assessing risk To assess risk, an inventory of key risks is build, along with the effects and probabilistic likelihood of each risk. A supply chain probability and impact matrix needs to be built. Designing a framework to manage the supply chain Once assessed, supply chain risks need to be managed via a framework that integrates all the key risk capabilities required. Implementing supply chain risk mitigation Companies need a robust action plan funded with the appropriate resources to address the core of the risk issues and implement treatment. The objective of this paper is to propose a comprehensive risk management and mitigation model for global supply chains. The model is intended to equip managers with a step-by-step procedure to identify, assess, and manage risks in their global supply chains, and guide future research. The paper reviews various risk mitigation techniques proposed in different papers in this subject and tries to understand its significance in the electronics and pharmaceutical industry. Literature Review Manuj and Mentzer (2008) say that due to demanding customers and competitive pressures, businesses today are restructuring themselves to operate on a global basis to take advantage of the international product, factor, and capital markets. There are several concerns in operating globally, including economic, political, logistical, competitive, cultural, and infrastructure. Typically, a firm operating internationally is part of a complex supply chain. Global supply chains require highly coordinated flows of goods, services, information, and cash within and across national boundaries. Maximizing profits in a multi-national environment include sourcing from locations that offer the lowest total procurement cost, manufacturing and assembling products in least cost countries, and marketing in high potential demand centres. But Wright and Datskovska (2012) are of the opinion that through lean processes and the geographical concentration of production, most executives would probably say tha t their supply chains and transport networks have become more efficient. These advances in efficiency, however, have also changed the risk profile for their supply chains. Janat Shah (2009) proclaims that lean techniques have created chains with longer paths and shorter clock speeds resulting in more opportunities for disruption and a smaller margin for error for a disruption to take place. Lengthy supply chains are increasingly proving to be a source of concern in the face of disruptions in sourcing, production and distribution of goods and services. As a result, many organizations need to take a hard look at supply chain risk and to review their plans and procedures for dealing with a broad range of new contingencies. Supply chain risk classification Wagner and Bode (2008) describes a supply chain risk as the combination of (1) an unintended, anomalous triggering event that materializes somewhere in the supply chain or its environment, and (2) a consequential situation which significantly threatens normal business operations of the firms in the supply chain. We can describe a five step approach to supply chain risk management- Risk Identification, Risk Assessment and Evaluation, Selection of Appropriate Risk Management, Implementation of Supply Chain Risk Management Strategy and Mitigation of Supply Chain Risk. Different authors have described various classifications of risk sources. Various supply chain risks can be divided as Supply, Operational, Demand, Security, Macro, Policy, Competitive and Resource risks. Chopra and Sodhi (2004) classify them as Disruption, Delay, Forecast, Systems, IP, Procurement, Receivables, Inventory and Capacity risks. Juttner, Peck and Christopher (2004) simplifies the classification to environmenta l risk sources, network-related risk sources and organisational risk sources. Risk assessment Pramod Kumar Mishra (2011) says that decisions on supply risks can be taken only when the impact of risks on the companys business can be evaluated. This can be quantitative or qualitative depending on the resources available. Risk assessment involves exploring what if scenarios like those below can help groups identify, understand and prioritize risks, a key prerequisite to tailoring effective risk-mitigation strategies. Manuj talks of two methods-probabilistic choice and risk analysis methods depending on the repeatability of events. Janat Shah has described constructing a probability and impact matrix to assess risk. Historical data may be used to understand the behaviour of risk probability distributions. However, there are many instances when there is none, inadequate, or unreliable historical data. In such cases, techniques such as the Delphi method may be used to assign probabilities. But Iyer(2008) says that this exercise is challenging because the relationships between risk factors are not static. One decision or risk factor may impact other risk factors. Risk mitigation Risk management is focused on identifying and assessing the probabilities and consequences of risks, and selecting appropriate risk strategies to reduce the probability of, or losses associated with, adverse events. Basically risk mitigation strategies can be classified primarily into seven categories: avoidance, postponement, speculation, hedging, control, sharing/transferring, and security. Hult, Craighead and Ketchen (2010) have suggested real options based method. Janat Shah has created a matrix with investment required for mitigation and risk score as the axis to decide the mitigation plan. Juttner, Peck and Christopher (2004) in there paper have defined an approach based on avoidance, control, cooperation and flexibility. Avoidance is through dropping product lines, markets, supplier or partners. They define a control approach through increasing stockpiling and buffer inventory, maintaining excess capacity and imposing contractual obligations. Cooperation is mentioned to be thr ough joint efforts in information sharing and preparing continuity plans. Flexibility can be through multiple sourcing and localised sourcing. Blos, Wee and Yang (2009) have devised a framework based on business continuity planning. Depending on the demand and supply uncertainty, the authors have also defined a matrix aligning the strategic objectives of the firm with the supply chain objective and the mitigation plan to be followed. An efficient, responsive, risk hedging and agile supply chain each have different plans. There are also devised methods for continous risk monitoring-stress testing and Tailoring Risk Management approaches. Trade-off The biggest challenge companies face is mitigating supply-chain risks without eroding profits. Juttner, Peck and Christopher (2004) summarised the trade-off decision as (1) Repeatability versus unpredictability, ie trading the benefits of repeatable processes against the cost of a lack of flexibility; (2) the lowest bidder versus the known supplier; (3) centralisation versus dispersion decisions in production and distribution; (4) collaboration versus secrecy, ie while sharing more information on e.g. the results of risk audits would better place organisations to manage supply chain risks, it could also deter potential customers or weaken the bargaining position; (5) redundancy versus efficiency, ie managing the conflict between excess capacity in a supply chain and the efficiency-focused lean paradigm aiming at the elimination or reduction of waste. A final, maybe paramount supply chain trade-off decision is between managing risk and delivering value. This is the trade-off between t he extra costs related to most of the mitigating strategies and the total costs of supply as a main principle of contemporary supply chain management. Risks in Pharmaceutical industry Enyinda, Mbah, Ogbuehi (2010) reports on the empirical findings of the quantification of risks that decision makers consider most important when deciding on a risk portfolio to mitigate and the manner in which risks are prioritized according to their importance in the pharmaceutical sector. The empirical findings suggest that decision makers attached great importance to counterfeit, Food and Drugs Board, and exchange-rate fluctuations. With respect to risk-mitigation strategies, risk reduction is considered most important, followed by risk avoidance. Dynamic sensitivity analysis with respect to a change (increase) in the Food and Drugs Board did not result in any change in the ranking of risk policy options, while a change (increase) in counterfeit resulted in a change in the ranking between risk reduction and risk avoidance. Risk avoidance ranked number one, followed by risk reduction. The paper leverages the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to quantify risk mitigation. Greg Brandyberry (2010) reports five important trends in risk management practices in the pharmaceutical industry. Sensible cash-flow management: With the changing environment of increased regulation, price controls, generic-drug competition, and longer and more expensive research and development cycles, pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies have become much more focused on supply-chain cash-flow management strategies (following the lead of other industries that began implementing these strategies as many as 25 years ago). These strategies consist of a combination of programs that strive to better balance cash inflows versus cash outflows. Better balance of low cost versus low risk. Global supply chains have been under development across pharmaceutical industry since decades. Outsourcing, combined with low-cost country sourcing, is even riskier. The US Food and Drug Administrations recall of heparin in 2008 due to contamination of lots produced in China is another example. In this heparin recall, the drug was oversulfated as Chinese heparin manufacturers were unethically cutting the medication with chondroitin sulfate to cut down on manufacturing costs. This incident had devastating impacts on those who had chosen to use this Chinese supplier. FDA reported that there were hundreds of serious adverse reactions and scores of deaths among patients that had taken the heparin (2). The hard lessons learned from this incident have made it important for companies to revaluate their low-cost country sourcing strategies. They are evaluating risk versus cost and rebalancing their supply strategies to less riskier profiles. Comprehensive strategic-procurement initiatives Strategic sourcing is a pragmatic and structured procurement process. This process is conducted over several steps and includes: rigorous internal and external analysis; development of multiple strategic options weighted for risk and cost; strategy selection made collaboratively with business stakeholders; well-orchestrated negotiation; and detailed implementation planning, supplier selection, and ongoing supplier management, including continuous-improvement activities. Sustainability When it comes to embracing sustainability and green behaviour in manufacturing and product specifications, several large corporations such as GlaxoSmithKline (London), Proctor Gamble (Cincinnati), Diageo (London), and Unilever (London) achieved material cost savings, enhanced brand image, and generated increased demand for their products through innovative changes in primary and secondary packaging components. Risk in electronics industry Frank Zwibler and Marco Hermann (2012) have suggested that most supply chains in the electronics industry are global networks consisting of a single OEM, an A-supplier, and several small and medium supply companies (SME). These networks are characterized, firstly, by the dominance of the OEM or the A-supplier and, secondly, by the volatile electronics market and its strong fluctuations in demand, short product life cycles, and tremendous potential for technical innovation. Supply chain mapping, brain-writing method and stress, resilience and expense portfolio have been described as successive steps of risk identification. The Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) technique has been used for risk assessment. After assessing the different parameters, the so-called risk priority number (RPN) can be determined. Risk measures to control are similar to earlier described mitigation plans. Sodhi(2005) has outlined a process to manage this risk by suggesting two risk measures for demand- a nd inventory-related risk respectively and two linear-programming (LP) models: one for allocating the plants replenishment schedule among the customers and the other to guide the request to plants for replenishment over the horizon. Research lacunae There is an immense need for action in industry to implement supply chain risk management systems. Each industry differs in their management of supply chain risks. Not only that supply chain risk management is not evenly applied throughout the different sectors, there are also great differences in the use and the implementation of supply chain risk management. A study comparing sector wise supply chain risk management is of immense scope. Research Methodology Mainly secondary research from peer reviewed journals, articles, websites and proceeds. Analysis The supply chain risk management process can be summarised as Figure : Supply Chain Risk Management Framework Electronics Industry More than ever before, electronics manufacturers are facing harsh realities. With further dismantling of trade barriers, globalization is now enabling companies to enter new markets each with its own standards and regulations creating fragmented product lines and distributed networks of suppliers and vendors. Product innovation is receiving greater emphasis as global competitors turn up the heat and product lifecycles continue to shrink. The entire nature of demand has changed, placing traditional forecasting weak. The fact is, long-range planning and demand forecasting are increasingly and inherently losing their ability to guide manufacturers as the recent inventory crisis in electronics showed all too clearly. With the introduction of partners such as electronics manufacturing services (EMS) providers, component suppliers and distributors, original design manufacturers (ODMs), contract design manufacturers (CDMs), and other participants, it becomes more challenging to control that network of suppliers. Although original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) still have direct design relationships with the semiconductor. Suppliers, the purchasing relationship comes about through the OEMs partners, making inventory ownership ambiguous, blurring inventory visibility across the supply chain, and creating unstructured processes among partners for managing supply chain execution. Figure Electronics Supply Chain (Source: QAD White Paper: Successful Risk Management in the Electronics Supply Chain) Critical risks Inventory Risk This is the greatest risk for supply chains getting caught holding inventory when a product becomes obsolete or demand shifts unexpectedly. With the highly volatile demand of electronics manufacturing, companies that rely heavily on demand-forecast accuracy face unnecessary inventory risks. Supply-Interruption Risk Conversely, no company wants to experience materials shortages that impact their ability to supply finished product to their customers. Supply interruptions are the ultimate opportunity cost for manufacturers. Capacity Risk In the cyclical electronics industry, most profits arise from new orders during a peak cycle coinciding with price premiums. Too little capacity presents significant opportunity costs. Conversely, excess capacity can negate the profits gained in the peak period. (Frank Zwibler and Marco Hermann (2010)) Risk Mitigation Inventory Visibility Faster Information Lead Times Sales and Operations Planning Managing Key Performance Indicators Managing Inter-Enterprise Business Processes Lean Manufacturing Service and Support Management An IT backbone enabling Supporting a pull-based manufacturing and replenishment environment Achieving inventory visibility across fragmented supply chains including multiple tiers and component suppliers and contract manufacturers Minimizing supply interruptions by reducing information lead time Comprehensive sales and operations planning (SOP) to optimize inventory at various points in the supply chain Monitoring supply chain KPIs including supplier and contract performance Managing outsourcing operations Supporting lean manufacturing and lean supply chain strategies Creating aggregated supply plans to drive strategic sourcing This ability to assess the impact and exposure from sources of risk made a big difference to the fortunes of Nokia and Ericsson, which were leading cell phone vendors in 2000. In March 2000, a fire broke out at their common supplier Phillips NVs semiconductor plant in New Mexico, forcing the plant to remain shut down for several months. The difference in outcomes between the two companies was dramatic-Nokia came out of the disruption stronger and gained market share, while a substantially weakened Ericsson lost more than à ¢Ã¢â¬Å¡Ã ¬400 million that year and ultimately exited the cell phone market in 2001. This difference was primarily due to Nokias comprehensive supply chain risk management program, which helped the company immediately-and accurately-estimate the impact of the shutdown on its business, and then react accordingly. Nokia switched orders to other Phillips plants and to Japanese and American suppliers, and redesigned chips to reduce its reliance on Phillips products. By comparison, Ericsson was unable to assess the potential impact of the fire on its business and could not respond quickly to the incident. Pharmaceutical Industry Figure : Pharmaceuticals Supply Chain (Source: Chartered Quality Institute Guide) Critical Risks Counterfeit Drugs As pharmaceutical supply chains worldwide continue to experience increased risk levels, led by counterfeit risk, the WHO reports (1998) that 10% of all drugs distributed worldwide are counterfeits, with a disproportionate 60% rate in the developing countries. Pharmaceutical counterfeits can impose tremendous costs on both the pharmaceutical industry and patient safety. The costs through the actions of counterfeiters and diverters include more sick patients, loss of life, erosion of public health confidence, loss of brand image, reduced profit and reduced shareholder value. These costs are compounded by the costs of product recalls and the growing threat of counterfeiting and diversion. Compromised or untrustworthy drug value chains can create uncertainty , decrease investment, and decrease in research and development. Food and Drugs Board Compliance norms for pharmaceuticals can make or break a drug. Regulators are becoming much stricter about quality issues, increasing the size and frequency of mandatory product recalls. The number of drug recalls by the FDA increased by more than 28 percent in 2009 to 2010, for example Exchange-rate fluctuations Foreign exchange rates can fluctuate dramatically over the course of a supply agreement and it is important to consider their impact upfront. Clinical trial risk This is a risk specific to the pharma supply chain arising as a result of the drug development process. The empirical findings from Enyindas research using Saatis AHP indicate that counterfeit risk (0.453) is considered more important, followed by FDB (0.264), exchange rate (0.112) and other risks. This helps in inferring the ranking of the risks in the sequence presented above. Risk mitigation for Counterfeits Usage of technology is the only means to curb the menace of counterfeit drugs. Sophisticated pack design and labelling using special inks Holograms Tags and tamper-evident seals Field agents actively investigating instances of counterfeit product Consumer Awareness Programs Enyinda Szmerekovsky(2010) have proposed that U.S. pharmaceutical firms must turn to SR supply chain to better track and trace prescription drugs. And the key enabler to SR supply chain is RFID technology that has been touted as the holy grail. Because of the significant promise that RFID has, FDA recommended its adoption by the pharmaceutical industry in order to achieve and meet the electronic pedigree requirement and compliance. Effective risk management requires the ability of the decision maker to rank and prioritize a portfolio of risk factors involved in the supply chain. Managing the risk throughout the supply chain now means taking a systemic view. The goal is to build a system that can detect and work around any major supply-chain weaknesses. Discussion Hypothesis H0: All industries face similar supply chin risks. H1 :All findustries do not face same supply chain risks. Analysis of the risks shows that each of the industrys pharmaceuticals and electronics has critical risks which are quite unique to it in the case of the former. Firstly, Counterfeit risks are an inherent risk in the pharmaceutical sector with irreparable damage and life threatening implication as a result. This can tarnish the company with a huge blow to its brand and spoil its top line in the short term. They have a higher potential of damage to the company in terms of plausible revenue losses because of the inseparability in their appearance as compared to the original. This is not the same case with electronics where, there are ample amount of duplicates in the market but their appearance and performance can be easily scrutinized to arrive at a decision to buy. And they rarely have life threatening consequences. Secondly, pharmaceutical industry is controlled by the FDA who is a strict watchdog of the practices in the industry. New drugs receive extensive scrutiny before FDA approval in a process called a New Drug Application or NDA. The FDA reviews and regulates prescription drug advertising and promotion. After approval of an NDA, the sponsor must review and report to the FDA every patient adverse drug experience of which it learns. In electronics there is CEA, but they are not that a controllable authority as that FDA puts on pharmaceuticals. Thirdly, clinical trials done during drug development are very unique to the pharmaceutical research developing new drugs. Thus these particular risks are not a part of electronics industry and the generalised risk framework wont do for the same.They require specialised risk mitigation plans as discussed. Conclusion and Managerial Implications Supply Chain risk management will be a key success factor for companies in a globalized world if they have implemented a risk management process in their organizational structure. We have briefly reviewed several published literatures on supply chain risks. An effort has been made to define critical risks followed by its classification for electronics and the pharmaceutical industry. Several models of risk assessment from published sources have been reviewed .After this, several strategies of risk management is being presented. Supply chain risk management is thus a growing and challenging area with lot of research potential to be explored further. A future research scope would be to quantify the impact of various risks on each industry through primary research. Both pharmaceutical and electronic supply-chain risks are often related to a lack of information visibility or deviations in the information and physical flows from upstream to downstream, increased knowledge of essential risk management procedures and structures can significantly improve the ability of decision makers in implementing appropriate mitigation treatments for identifiable risk portfolios.
Sunday, January 19, 2020
Marijuana: The Legalization :: social issues
Marijuana: The Legalization Their Side: After the sustaining vote in November of 1996 and coming into effect the beginning of this year, marijuana is now legal to medical patients in California and Arizona. Proposition 215 reads as follows: The people of the State of California hereby find and declare that the purposes of the Compassionate Use Act of 1996 are as follows: (A) To ensure that seriously ill Californians have the right to obtain and use marijuana for medical purposes where that medical use is deemed appropriate and has been recommended by a physician who has determined that the person's health would benefit from the use of marijuana in the treatment of cancer, anorexia, AIDS, chronic pain, spasticity, glaucoma, arthritis, migraine, or any other illness for which marijuana provides relief. (B) To ensure that patients and their primary care givers obtain and use marijuana for medical purposes upon the recommendation of a physician are not subject to criminal prosecution or sanction. C. To encourage the federal and state governments to implement a plan for the safe and affordable distribution of marijuana to all patients in medical need of marijuana. (Proposition 215 Section 11362.5) Of course, it goes on and breaks into fine detail into which I choose not to venture. To summarize it all, if you're sick, or think you are, your doc can get you some pot. Just like that. So what's so great about this? It supposedly brings relief to those with terminal illnesses. (Such were listed in 215) Cancer sufferers who are inflicted with nausea due to chemotherapy have reported that a puff or two of a marijuana cigarette relieves the pain. (Theorized after study by psychiatrist Lester Grinspoon of Harvard Medical School) It has also been reported to relieve the pain suffered by AIDS patients. Despite all this great relief, one question remains unanswered, what about the side effects? Exactly how harmful and addicting is this stuff? MY SIDE: (the important stuff) My personal opinion: Marijuana should remain illegal because of the enormous side effects and addiction that results after using the drug. My first fact to back my opinion would have to be this, marijuana is what it is, a drug! You can't change that no matter how many people vote on it. Sure, there are prescription drugs on the market that are potentially dangerous but their effects are nothing compared to that of marijuana.
Saturday, January 11, 2020
Insights provided by behavioural finance for personal finance strategy creation
Abstract Behavioural financeââ¬â¢s potential to impact personal finance planning has long been a topic of substantial debate.This essay examines the correlation of the field of behavioural finance to the formation of personal strategy with the goal of illustrating the strengths and weaknesses of the approach. The results of this study illustrate the close bond that lies between the psychological state and the investment patterns undertaken by active investors. This research will be of interest to any person studying the impact of behavioural finance on personal strategy. Introduction The field of behavioural finance is argued to have a considerable impact on personal financial planning, personal finance and strategy formation (Banerjee, 2011). This area is cited by many to have the capacity to dictate the plan that a person might choose to employ during the course of forming a personal investment strategy. Effective planning is central to the identification and subsequent illustration of systemic and habitual manners that can be both positive and detrimental in the course of creating the best price and return on investment (Baker et al, 2010). Beginning with a clear examination of impact, this essay sets out to define and provide a demonstration of the impact that behavioural finance can have on the entirety of a personal financial strategy with the intent of providing the means to avoid future mistakes. Behavioural Finance Benartzi (2010) defines the area of behavioural finance as the use of psychological based insights to create economic strategy. This approach demonstrates the potential impact that day to day emotions and basic intuition can have on a personal financial situation. In many cases, the use of emotion to operate investment strategy has resulted in a significant failure or systematic issues that continuously plague the investor (Benartzi, 2010). This suggests that some emotion-based investing is either ill-timed or ill-conceived and therefore faulty and liable to lead to significant losses in the short- to mid-term. Conversely, many argue that intuition, based on effective knowledge, has the capacity to lift an investor above the majority and provide a method of obtaining great investment gains (Benartzi, 2010). In contrast to emotional investing, basing a strategy on an inherent skill or talent is suggested here to have the innate capability to achieve the end goal of base profit. Howev er, the line between emotional or biased investment and undiluted intuition seems to be slight and extraordinarily slippery, leading directly to poor financial planning. Meier (2010) illustrates the position that many mainstream investors can be identified as the classical or standard variant. This form of investor commonly assumes that they know what is in the best interest of their portfolio and it is well within their power to implement (Meier, 2010). This method of investment operates on the notion that rivalry between firms will maintain competition and therefore require minimal oversight, enhancing trust in the endeavour. However, this view is offset by the behavioural financial argument that contends that investors are often confused or misled, and despite the best intentions of many investors there is often significant lack of follow through during the strategy process (Meier, 2010). This suggests that psychology has direct and compelling impact on any formation of a personal investment plan and that often less than optimal decisions are made. Further expanding on this point is the practical issue of the need for regulation in a world often described as corrupt and morally bankrupt (Paramasivan et al, 2009). Taken together, the separation of mainstream theory from behavioural reality seems to lead many investors to incomplete assumptions and poor patterns of investment behaviour and financial planning. McAuley (2009) illustrates the view that common decision making is based a concept referred to as heuristics or common sense rules of thumb. These approaches utilise the same capacity that humankind has employed to make day to day decisions for centuries (McAuley, 2009). However, many investors commonly use poor or mistaken data in their efforts to make a profitable investment in often volatile markets (Forbes, 2009). This concept supports that notion that there is the opportunity for investors to utilise an incorrect data model in order to create strategies, which in turn can lead to substantial losses and an eventual fundamental failure of strategy. Further expanding on this point is the creation of bias during the assessment process (McAuley, 2009). Bias is commonly defined as randomised departures from the rational process, although there is often a link to the rational base (Subrahmanyam, 2008). This suggests that some decision making is based on inherently poor material, which in turn is credited with leading the entire strategy to decline. With each loss there is a continual perpetuation of the bias cycle, with negative actions resulting in consistently negative consequences (Baker et al, 2011). Alongside this link to emotional investment patterns, there have been several forms of bias recognised and addressed during the process of personal fjnance formation and financial planning. Insufficient adjustment is the inherent bias on the part of the investor to overlook the larger market picture and remain too conservative in their investment approach (McAuley, 2009).With this lack of confidence in the building strategy on the part of the investor, there is a very dim prospect for the personal financial planning efforts to make a significant gain. Further, this bias could in fact hold back an investor from reaching out to an emerging opportunity, which in turn can become a fatal habit. Conversely, the bias of overconfidence is credited with much of the investor losses over the course of the past recession and decade (McAuley, 2009). This bias has the inherent capacity to compel an investor to disregard sound advice or patterns in favour of other highly questionable actions (McAuley, 2009). This suggests overconfidence can easily overextend or compromise a working strategy. Modern financial theory has been developed in order to explain and develop the area of behavioural finance (Debondt et al, 2010). Redhead (2008) points to the Prospect Theory as a key method of determining the context of an investorââ¬â¢s behaviour. This approach argues that there are three separate components that must be considered in regards to an investorââ¬â¢s behaviour (Redhead, 2008): a) The perceived elements that are subject to bias. This identifies and illuminates the personal components that are tied to an investment decision. b) Investors are far more concerned with immediate losses and gains as opposed to overall level of wealth. c) Investors feel losses much more dearly than they do gains. Each of these elements ties into the state of the investorââ¬â¢s emotional and psychological balance preceding their investment strategy, which in turn provides the means to assess and adapt a developing investment plan (Redhead, 2008). Deaves et al (2005) contends that loss aversion is among the most powerful of the behavioural patterns expressed by anxious investors. In order to offset the concerns many potential market participants follow eight recommendations that have been found to have a direct impact on the formation and execution of a personal financial plan (Deaves et al, 2005): 1) Take a holistic view of the available assets and associated liabilities. There is and must always be room to adapt and adjust. 2) As much as possible allow for the maximum amount of affordable pay to be automatically invested within the client portfolio. This often takes the decision point away and offers a long term yield benefit. 3) Disregard the past actions and base investment decisions on future estimates of costs and benefits. 4) Take a long-term, as opposed to a short- to mid-term view of the investment portfolio. 5) Avoid any passing fad or quick trend promising a quick turnaround. 6) Past performance is no guarantee of future earnings. 7) Save as much as possible, as often as possible. 8) Stay the course. This approach to behavioural finance suggests that utilising elements of theory to assist in the creation of proper strategy is actively engaging the psychological tendencies of the investors in order to capitalise on their inherent strengths as well as avoid their innate detriments. Yet, despite the efforts of some financial planners many common investment mistakes continue to take place no matter the system in place (Montier, 2007). A very common loss aversion tendency that is credited with the loss of many investorsââ¬â¢ assets is the tendency to hold on to a losing stock for too long based on past performance or associated issues (Benartzi, 2010). This is based on the very real emotional base of pleasure seeking and pain aversion. If person sells a successful stock and gains a profit, pleasure is felt, thereby encouraging the investor (Benartizi, 2010). Conversely, letting a failing stock linger, and losing money is credited with very physical manifestations of pain, which in turn lead to poor decisions the state of personal finances and personal finance planning (Benartizi, 2010). Risk aversion in behavioural finance has the potential to manifest in several different identities in the course of determining a personal financial strategy (Montier, 2007). This is a suggestion that the method that an investment is packaged and presented, or framed, has a direct bearing on the application or implementation of the proposal. Using tools including cash back incentives, or gifts, is a common method for inducing investors to overlook other data in favour of investing in the underlying company (McAuley, 2010). This suggests that a favourable set of circumstances to the investor have an impact on the manner and method of investment, prompting many advertisers and financial planners to readily target specific behaviour elements during their efforts to spur . Hens et al (2008) argue that in many cases an investor has an expected utility of the associated investment that is unrealistic. Many leading financial strategists state unequivocally that no one human can be fully informed on any single investment (Pompian, 2006). This leads to the investor believing that they have more control than is present in the endeavour, which in turn leads to a diminished or detrimental return. Baker et al (2010) credits many of the investment decisions made by investors as based on the discounting of the future potential in favour of the quick and present, albeit smaller, rewards. This need for immediate satisfaction has a direct impact on the ability for a portfolio to make the most of the assets available.This suggests that successful personal planning will focus on the mid to long term investments with a clear determination to avoid any quick or offhand investment decisions. Baker et al (2010) extend the point of the need to avoid physical distraction by illustrating studies that connect the gastronomically centred portion of the brain to the segments related to the investment areas. This is an indication that habits that are common in the population, including over eating and poor diet, can be extended to the investment portfolio. Emerging methods including surveys, interviews and focus groups are allowing for the concept of behavioural finance to be incorporated into mainstream investing (Muradoglu et al, 2012). With clear success in defining and removing behavioural impediments, many investors are looking to this field of research for potential edges in determining future strategy. Conclusion Behavioural finance is argued to provide substantial impact on personal finance and personal planning and the results of this essay support that contention. Despite the desire for a black and white investment environment, there is no escaping the impact that inherent bias, shortcoming and basic human error play on the implementation of an effective investment scheme. The material presented illustrates the potential for personal bias based on such base elements as the food consumed prior to making decisions, yet, the process of identification has the potential to offset the negative and enhance the positive. Further, intuition has been credited with propelling many investors to success, yet, this is separate from the decision making process that allows for the creation of bias and the inclusion of errant material. A clear benefit to the implementation of a personal financial strategy is knowledge of the elements that make up the field of behavioural finance, allowing the creation of an effective process to offset any negative pattern of investment behaviour. In the end, as with all manner of investments, it comes to discipline, skill, patience and the determination of the investor to not be swayed in the face of adversity but hold to the reality of any situation. References Baker, H. and Nofsinger, J. (2010). Behavioural finance. 1st ed. Hoboken, N.J.: Wiley. Baker, M. and Wurgler, J. (2011). Behavioural corporate finance: Wiley. Banerjee, A. (2011). Application of Behavioural Finance in Investment Decisions: An Overview. The Management Accountant, 46(10). Benartzi, S. (2010). Behavioural Finance in Action. Allianz 1(1) p. 3-6. Brigham, E. and Ehrhardt, M. (2005). Financial management. 1st ed. Mason, Ohio: Thomson/South-Western. Deaves, R. and Charupat, N (2005). Behavioural Finance. Journal of Personal Finance 1(1). P. 48-53. DeBondt, W., Forbes, W., Hamalainen, P. and Muradoglu, Y. (2010). What can behavioural finance teach us about finance?. Qualitative Research in Financial Markets, 2(1), pp.29ââ¬â36. Forbes, W. (2009). Behavioural finance. 1st ed. New York: Wiley. Hens, T. and Bachmann, K. (2008). Behavioural finance for private banking. 1st ed. Chichester, England: John Wiley & Sons. McAuley, I (2009). Understanding human behaviour in financial decision making. Centre for Policy Development 1(1). p. 1-5. Meier, S. (2010). Insights from Behavioural Economics for Personal Finance. Behavioural Economics and Personal Finance 1(1). p. 1-3 Montier, J. (2007). Behavioural investing. 1st ed. Chichester, England: John Wiley & Sons. Muradoglu, G. and Harvey, N. (2012). Behavioural finance: the role of psychological factors in financial decisions. Review of Behavioral Finance, 4(2), pp.68-80. Paramasivan, C. and Subramanian, T. (2009). Financial management. 1st ed. New Delhi: New Age International (P) Ltd., Publishers. Pompian, M. (2006). Behavioural finance and wealth management. 1st ed. Hoboken, N.J.: Wiley. Redhead, K. (2008). Personal finance and investments. 1st ed. London [u.a.]: Routledge. Sewell, M. (2007). Behavioural finance. University of Cambridge. UK Subrahmanyam, A. (2008). Behavioural finance: A review and synthesis. European Financial Management, 14(1), pp.12ââ¬â29.
Friday, January 3, 2020
The Casey Anthony Case Essay - 2176 Words
The Casey Anthony case was one that captured the heart of thousands and made it to the headline of national TV talk shows, newspapers, radio stations and social media networks for months. The root of the case was due to a clash between the parental responsibilities, the expectations that went with being a parent, and the life that Casey Anthony wanted to have. The case was in respect to the discovering the cause of Caseyââ¬â¢s two-year-old daughter, Caylee Marie Anthonyââ¬â¢s, death; however the emphasis was placed on Casey and her futile lies, which resulted in a public outcry. The purpose of this essay is to delve into the public atmosphere and inquire about why the media and social media collectively attacked the case by uncovering the contentâ⬠¦show more contentâ⬠¦Casey told detectives several lies, including that her nanny had kidnapped Caylee on June 9, and that she had been trying to find her, too frightened to alert the authorities. She was charged with first-de gree murder in October 2008 and pleaded not guilty. The prosecution sought the death penalty and alleged Casey murdered her daughter to be free from parental responsibilities by administering chloroform and applying duct tape. The defense team countered that the child had drowned accidentally in the familyââ¬â¢s swimming pool on June 16, 2008, and that George Anthony disposed of the body. The defense contended that Casey lied about these issues due to a dysfunctional upbringing, which was said to include sexual abuse by her father. On June 5, 2011, the jury found Casey not guilty of first-degree murder, aggravated child abuse, and aggravated manslaughter of a child, but guilty of four misdemeanor counts of providing false information to a law enforcement officer. She was released on a bond of $500,000 and a Florida court overturned two of the misdemeanor convictions on January 25, 2013. The ââ¬Å"performersâ⬠of the trial played a crucial role in the trial, the verdict and the informal perceptions of Casey Anthony. The prosecutor and defense both played contrasting roles in shaping their client/opponent legally and informally, in the media. TheShow MoreRelatedCis 417 Week 7 Case Study 3 Casey Anthony Trial655 Words à |à 3 PagesCIS 417 WEEK 7 CASE STUDY 3 CASEY ANTHONY TRIAL To purchase this visit here: http://www.activitymode.com/product/cis-417-week-7-case-study-3-casey-anthony-trial/ Contact us at: SUPPORT@ACTIVITYMODE.COM CIS 417 WEEK 7 CASE STUDY 3 ââ¬â CASEY ANTHONY TRIAL On July 5, 2011, Casey Anthony was found not guilty of first-degree murder in the 2008 death of her daughter, Caylee. Further research this incident using quality and reputable resources. Write a two to three (2-3) page paper in which you: Read MoreCasey Anthony Trial Essay732 Words à |à 3 Pages2008, one of the biggest crime cases devastated the United States nation-wide. The death of Caylee Anthony, a two year old baby, became the most popular topic in a brief amount of time. Cayleeââ¬â¢s mother, Casey Anthony, became the main suspect after the child supposedly was kidnapped and went missing. To this day, the Casey Anthony case shocks me because justice, in my opinion, wasnââ¬â¢t served. I feel as if the criminal conviction system became somewhat corrupted in this case. The entire nation, includingRead MoreCasey Anthony Essay830 Words à |à 4 PagesCasey Anthony Trial Patricia Saylor Donna Dansey Computer Forensics November 25, 2012 Casey Anthony Case There have been many murder trials in the United States which have gripped the nation, OJ Simpson, BTK, Lee Harvey Oswald. But more shocking to the consciousness of America is the story of a child which has been killed. Such would be the case of Caylee Anthony, and the trial of Casey Anthony. In this assignment the discussion will focus on this case, exposingRead MoreCasey Anthony Trial Essay1594 Words à |à 7 PagesThe Casey Anthony Trial One of the most controversial and polemic trials of all times since the OJ Simpson trial was the case of Casey Anthony and the murder of her two year old daughter. All the evidences and witness revealed that she was the main suspect in the murder of her daughter; however in 2011 she was found not guilty of this murder due to several different aspects. This paper will inform and provide the reader with detailed information about this case. In addition the reader will findRead MoreCasey Anthony Trial782 Words à |à 4 PagesCase Study 3: Casey Anthony Trial In June of 2008, Cynthia Anthony reported her two year old granddaughter, Caylee Anthony missing to the authorities of Orange County in Orlando, Florida. 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(Wikipedia, 2017) For all cases, it is the responsibility of the prosecution to prove beyond reasonable doubt that the defendant is guilty and vice versa for the defense. To start, the prosecution gave their argument: Casey Anthony killed her daughter and dumped her body in the woods after keeping it in the trunk of her car. On the other hand, the defense gave the argument that Casey Anthonyââ¬â¢s daughter drowned in the family pool and Casey conspired to hide the body and lied to policeRead MoreThe Casey Anthony Trail Essay542 Words à |à 3 PagesThe Casey Anthony Trail, a case that lasted a month and a half was one that left everyone shocked, ending with no justice and a devastating result. It all started in 2008, when Caylee Anthony, a 2year old child went missing. The 2 year oldââ¬â¢s mother, Casey Anthony stated to the police that the last time she has seen her daughter was when she dropped her off to the childââ¬â¢s babysitter. 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Caylee was an innocent toddler that lived with her mother, Casey Anthony and her maternal grandmothers, Cindy and George. On July 15, 2008 a call to 911 was sent in by Cayleeââ¬â¢s grandmother Cindy, reporting that she hasnââ¬â¢t seen Caylee in 31 days and that the t oddlerââ¬â¢s motherââ¬â¢s car smelled like a dead body has been inside it. The toddlerââ¬â¢s mother gave varied explanations
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